La réorganisation des échanges internationaux de produits agricoles

Quelles perspectives pour l’agriculture européenne ?

FOP 12 avenue George V 75008 Paris

^* p.dusser@prolea.com

Abstract

Markets for agricultural commodities are changing patterns: the leadership is moving between commodities as well as between countries. Demands for meals for feed as well as demand for vegetable oil for human consumption have resulted in a strongly growing world market for oilseed which are seriously challenging the leadership to cereals in term of volume (170 million tons vs 200 million tons) while already coming first in value ($45 billion vs $25 billion). The growth in demand is mainly localized in emerging countries in Asia (China, India) due to rising consumption of white meats: poultry and pork. Countries tend to produce locally the meats and the grains for feed, while accepting to rely strongly on imports for additional needs of proteins for feed and as well as of vegetable oil for human consumption. This is sustaining the growth of oilseed world exchanges. Parallel to new import markets in emerging countries in Asia, new producers are taking the leadership in exports, outpacing the USA and EU, longtime leaders on ag. markets. South America, and Brazil in particular, thanks to land availability and cheap labor are progressively becoming leaders in soybean, pork, poultry, beef, orange juice, sugar… Russia, Ukraine, are resuming a significant presence on grains markets. For the European Union, the new world context leads to a serious review of future positioning, especially in light of the future WTO obligations – less protection on access, elimination of export subsidies and less internal support. EU Animal productions sector will suffer most from the new context. Grains and oilseed EU production will continue to increase. As prices for grains will be curbed to world market level, some additional land may be diverted to oilseed. Nevertheless the availabilities of cereals will maintain high EU export. Biofuels appear to be a strategic outlet for European agricultural sector, biofuels use grains and sugar beet for ethanol as well as oilseed for biodiesel. Extent of biofuels development will determine the final balance of EU arable crops and especially availability of grains to export.