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Table 1
Sunflower yield variation in Europe at different time horizons and without adaptation for a range of studies varying by crop models, scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions and regional climatic models.
| Reference | GGE scenario | GCM/RCM | Baseline | Time horizon | Crop model | Simulation conditions | European regions | Yield variation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison and Butterfield (1996) | UKHI UKTR 31–40 UKTR 66–75 |
UKHI UKTR |
1961–1990 | 2023 2064 >2100 |
EuroSunfl | Water-limited yields (no irrigation) | Europe EU-15 North of 45°N South of 45°N |
+4% to −39% +8% to −28% −11% to −25% +41% to −4% |
| Tubiello et al. (2000) | [CO2]: 350 – 700 ppm (+4 °C; +10% precipitation); | 2 GCM (GISS, GFDL) statistical downscaling |
1952–1991 + weather generator (50 yr baseline) | n.a | CropSyst | Water-limited yields (no irrigation) | Foggia (Southern Italy) | 0 to −6% |
| Guilioni et al. (2010) | A1B (SRES) | GCM: ARPEGE + 3 downscaling methods | 1971–2000 | (FP) 2020–2050 (FL) 2070–2100 |
STICS | Water-limited yields (no irrigation) | 6 locations in France | (FP) 0 to −14% (FL) +3% to −3% |
| Valverde et al. (2015) | A2, A1B, B1 | 16 IPCC models + 5 climate change scenarios | 1961–1990 | (1) 2011–2040 (2) 2041–2070 |
ISAREG | Water-limited yields (no irrigation | Portugal (Alentejo) | (1) −9% to −10% (2) −11% to −18% |
| Moriondo et al. (2011) | A2 (SRES) – 550 ppm B2 (SRES) – 700 ppm |
RCM: HadRM3P | 1961–1990 (350 ppm) | 2071–2100 | CropSyst CropSyst modified⁎ |
Water-limited yields (no irrigation) | Mediterranean zone +34° to +47° lat N -10° to +30 ° long E |
A2: −6% to −21% B2: −10% to −22% A2: −24% to −46% B2: −25% to −41% |
| Donatelli et al. (2012) | A1B (SRES) | GCM/RCM: HadCM3/HadRM3 ECHAM5/HIRHAM5 |
2000 (355 ppm) | 2020 (400 ppm) 2030 (420 ppm) |
CropSyst | Water-limited yields (no irrigation) | Europe (EU – 12 main producers) | HadCM3: 0 to −6% (2020); −6% to −14% (2030) ECHAM5: 0 to −20% (2020); −6% to −25% (2030) |
| Olivier et al. (2016) | A2 A1B |
GCM31 MIROC32 |
1971–1990 | 2046–2065 | Aquacrop | No precipitation and [CO2] changes | Ukraine Russia Kazakhstan |
GCM31: −33% to +56% MIROC32: −87% to +63% |
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