Les différents scénarios du changement climatique

Météo-France, Centre national de recherches météorologiques, CNRS/GAME, 42 av Coriolis 31057 Toulouse, France

^* deque@meteo.fr

Abstract

The assumption of a climate change along the 21st century is now widely accepted : the world population and consumption growth will lead to an increase in greenhouse effect. In order to explore possible evolutions in agreement with the laws of physics, numerical modeling is the most appropriate tool. ARPEGE-Climate is the atmospheric model of the French meteorological service. It has been run over the 21^st century to simulate possible evolutions under three hypotheses of increase in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration. This model covers the globe with a rather high resolution over southern Europe (50 km). The results show a larger warming in summer than in winter and a spatially variable response for precipitation.