Contexte actuel et perspectives du secteur pétrolier

IFP Direction des études économiques, 1&4 avenue de Bois-Préau, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison Cedex 01 47 52 70 82

^* nathalie.alazard@ifp.fr

Abstract

The tripling of oil prices during the last four years is the consequence of a lost of flexibility all along the oil supply chain. The surplus capacities of production as well as refining created by the previous oil shocks have disappeared. The fundamentals of oil market show that, unless a sharp slowdown of world oil demand, the present lack of flexibility will continue in the short to medium term. The price of the barrel of oil should remain at a high level in the coming years, furthering the development of alternative solutions to oil products as for example biofuels in transportation sector.