La révolution mondiale de la consommation alimentaire : l’émergence d’une nouvelle classe moyenne chinoise

Revolution in global food consumption: a new emerging middle-class in China

Université Paris Descartes, 12 rue de l’Ecole de Médecine, 75270 Paris Cedex 06

^* d.desjeux@argonautes.fr

Reçu : 19 Juillet 2012
Accepté : 27 Juillet 2012

Abstract

Re-analysing the 1945-1975 period, these three post-war decades of massive economic and strong demographic growths, is a way to understand a large part of the actual evolution encountered in China. Just as Europe did more than a century ago, China woke up and is about to regain the place in the economy it used to occupy at the beginning of the 19^th century. In 2009, China was one of the fourth biggest buyers of agricultural lands in the world with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and South Korea. Just as Europe did in 1945, over the last three decades China has built coastal infrastructures such as harbours, highways, airports, encouraging the mobility of people, goods and information. Cities and buildings have developed; there has been industrialization, supply of goods and services to consumers... and finally development of a middle class, especially on the East coast. Or more precisely two middle classes – an upper middle class (105 millions of consumers, with an income of 4 800$ to 12 500$/year) and a lower middle class (190 millions of consumers, with an income of 3 000$ to 4 800$/year) –, both responsible for the actual evolution of food consumption in China. Traditional consumption of rice is decreasing, just as potatoes did after the 60’s in France; meat and milk consumption (pork, chicken) are soaring. Consequently, the explosion of demand and changes in diets are increasing the strains on world agricultural commodity markets. Nobody knows if China is living the last days of these Golden Years (its gross domestic product (GDP) drop from 14 % to 8 % between 2007 and 2012) or if it is just a step before a new take-off based this time on Central China, after the one based on the East coast. And what about the consequences of the ageing of the Chinese population and of the ‘‘one child’’ policy on future changing lifestyles?