Open Access
Table 1
Driving and main secondary assumptions.
| MAIN | 2013 | SC1 Chaos | SC2 Blocks | SC3 Trust | SC4 Climate |
| ASSUMPTIONS | rupture | ||||
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| Population | 7.2 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 8.9 |
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| Agricultural yields | stagnation | weak | moderate | stagnation | |
| progress | |||||
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| Per capita animal | low | moderate | high | low | |
| proteins consumption | |||||
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| Political behaviours | passivity and everyone | blocks policies | cooperation | cooperation | |
| regarding global change | for himself | ||||
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| Economic growth | weak | moderate | high | moderate | |
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| high, and contrasts | high, and contrasts | ||||
| Petroleum price | 105//770 | 50−70// | 60−80// | between regions | between regions |
| $/ barel//$/ton | 365−511 | 450−610 | - –> 135/150 | - –> 135/150 | |
| //950−1100 | //950−1100 | ||||
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| Animal protein | |||||
| consumption g/cap/day | |||||
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| China | 37 | 39 | 46 | 46 | 41 |
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| India | 14 | 20 | 21 | 36 | 18 |
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| Africa | 14 | 16 | 26 | 26 | 18 |
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| Europe | 67 | 49 | 54 | 65 | 36 |
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| USA | 70 | 55 | 61 | 66 | 43 |
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| rest of the world | 37 | 26 | 31 | 37 | 36 |
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| World | 31 | 29 | 34 | 39 | 29 |
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| World Palm oil for food | 41 | “more than | 42−50 MT | 50 MT | |
| consumption MT/year | 200 MT” | ||||
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| Health policies in Europe | no | yes | yes | yes | |
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| Nutritional | no or poorly | yes | yes –> oméga-3 | yes –> oméga-3 | |
| recommendations are | |||||
| taken into account | |||||
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| EU policies on biofuels | biofuels | Renewable energy | Renewable energy | ||
| not mandatory | directive maintained/ | directive maintained/biofuels | |||
| mandatory | not mandatory | ||||
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| Reinforced regulations | no | generalized carbon | yes, standardization | yes, carbon tax | |
| regarding sustainability | tax in Europe | and standardization | |||
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| GMO | deregulated | no crops | constraints | constrainsts are | |
| regulations | no use in Europe | are lifted | partially lifted | ||
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| Antibiotics | free | prohibited | prohibited | ? | |
| uses in feed | |||||
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| Green chemistry, biorefinery | stagnating | strong development | strongdevelopment | strong development | |
| (Asia leader for | |||||
| oleochemistry) | |||||
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