Volume 13, Number 4, Juillet-Août 2006
|239 - 246
|Les modèles économétriques utilisés par la banque mondiale
|15 July 2006
Généalogie des modèles de la libéralisation
Chercheur associé à l’INRA, Membre de l’Académie d’Agriculture de France
Many econometric models are providing a scientific guarantee in support of full trade liberalisation. This is an old tradition, as old as the 18th century “physiocrates” (those who wanted a “natural law” governing economy. Most of these models, however, are not younger than Leon Walras’s. The latter is a famous economist of the 19th century, one of the first having introduced the idea of a general equilibrium model. After more than one century, and many experiences, the question arises of the validity of Leon Walras’s intuition, so genial they may have been at the time. A modern analysis of the liberalisation benefits should now rely on dynamic models, in which uncertainty regarding futures prices is explicitly taken in account. With such models, it would be possible to evaluate both the benefitsarising from a better world resources allocation and the cost associated with the removal of many regulation policies which, historically, had been created under the pressure of market failures, and which a total liberalisation would make impossible to continue.
Key words: CGE / Walras / liberalisation / risk / econometric models
© John Libbey Eurotext 2006
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